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Know which way the wind blows
When circumstances change and you still understand what is happening is what this idiom means. The origin may come from traditional hunting.

This is from a website visitor:
"Know which way the wind blows"
"The wind blows where it wants to, and you hear its sound, but don't know
where it comes from and where it is going. So is everyone who is born of the
Spirit." -- John 3:8

The idiom refers to a person who thinks he knows the direction that God is leading him, but is mistaken. This is not the modern context, but the origin